Religion and data - two of my favourite things!

When I get going on a favourite subject, I have a tendency to ramble. This may be a long one ;-)

Recently, a study was brought to my attention. This study was an examination of correlations between religiosity (belief in God, church attendance etc) and quantifiable metrics of social health (rates of homicide, suicide, teenage pregnancies, abortion, STDs etc). The paper to which I refer is published in the Journal of Religion and Society, a refereed journal published through the Kripke Center at a Jesuit Catholic school, and is written very objectively, appearing to be free of any ‘secular’ agenda that the uninitiated might be tempted to suggest.

At the end of the manuscript, a number of figures are shown, plotting metrics of religiosity against those of social health. Some of these are largely in line with what one might expect, but some show trends that might come as a significant shock. I’d like to draw your attention to (in my opinion) some of the more startling correlations, in the hope of understanding the meaning behind them.

Figure 1 shows correlations between acceptance of human evolution and various metrics of religiosity. In a certain manner, acceptance of human evolution is a metric for popular scientific literacy. A reasonable anti-correlation is seen between acceptance of evolution and all positive measures of religiosity (for example, as belief in God rises, the acceptance of evolution falls). This probably comes as no surprise.

Figure 2, which plots homicide rates against the metrics of religiosity, shows no statistically significant correlation. That is, the murder rate is completely unaffected by beliefs of a society. Likewise, Figure 3 shows no correlation between religiosity and suicide rates in young adults, and Figure 5 indicates no correlation with life expectancy.

However, Figure 4 is staggering. It shows a tremendously significant positive correlation between the mortality rates of the under-5-year-old population and religiosity: The higher the belief in God, the higher the infant mortality rate. And significantly so; a doubling of belief in God brings a 50% increase in mortality rates. Furthermore, the correlation is tightest around belief in God; more so than the attendance of religious services. For example, by comparing the plot against absolute belief and the plot against service attendance, the data for Ireland and Italy (which are outliers in the latter, but lie in close correlation in the former) indicate that the correlation really is with belief in God, rather than with church attendance. (Note that these are two countries with strong cultural ties to the church (Roman Catholic), such that it is not uncommon for those who have tenuous personal belief to attend church services regularly).

Surprisingly, Figure 8 shows an unarguably strong positive correlation between teenage abortions and the metrics of religiosity, and Figure 9 shows positive correlation with pregnancies.

So, what are the data telling us? The inarguable fact is, in societies where a belief in God is more prevalent, there is more social dysfunction, often in the very realms to which the prevalent ‘religious’ teaching is most contrary. For example, it is interesting that in a society which is more vocally against all abortion, the abortion rates in teenage pregnancies (i.e. those which have the largest proportion of abortion for social reasons, rather than medical ‘necessity’) are highest. Further, there is no instance in any metric of a positive correlation between religiosity and social health; either the metrics show increased religiosity coincides with more social problems, or there is no correlation whatsoever.

Why is this? We know from personal experience that genuine belief in God ought not induce such trends. We also know that, as C.S. Lewis maintained, the moral law is ingrained innately within us – that it is all-pervasive, present irrespective of theological stance. This is indicated by the data on homicide – people are no more or less likely to murder based on their beliefs.

It seems like the social problems for which there are the strongest correlations are biased towards those of youth: teenage pregnancies and abortions, particularly. It may be that, in those societies where there is the most ‘religious’ pressure to conform to the ‘rules,’ there is a greater likelihood of the youth ‘careering off the rails.’ One can certainly see similar trends with attitudes to alcohol: those who were raised in cultures in which alcohol was an everyday substance throughout their childhood (wine with dinner etc) have a lower tendency toward binge-drinking in their teenage/early-adult years.

Alternatively, perhaps the correlation is actually in the opposite direction. One could argue that, in those societies where there are more social problems generally (for whatever reason) people are more troubled, and more likely to look to God. We all know, for example, how times of tribulation (for ourselves or out loved-ones) can invigorate our prayer life.

So, the data show that these trends exist, but I don't yet have a convincing understanding of what cause lies behind them.

Thoughts, friends?

Heaven and Hell

Hello, all.

This week's Good Words e-mail pertained to heaven and eternity: "It was made clear to me that we must not think of eternity from time, but from state," wrote Emmanuel Swedenborg. The transcendence of time, space, and (most importantly) ego is the "eternal life" of which the scriptures speak - that is heaven. Eckhart wrote that "time is what keeps the light from reaching us; there is no greater obstacle to God than time." In other words, heaven must be outside of time and space, because the love of God, which is heaven, transcends time and space.

However, a Baptist coworker of mine had this to say:

It is likely that the day slipped by without much recognition. I confess I completely missed it. Not all holidays--a contraction for the phrase "holy days"--are regarded with the care the word itself necessitates. But whether we missed it or not, last Thursday was indeed a holy day.

Forty days after the celebration of Easter and the resurrection of Christ is the remembrance of another eventful day. The gospel writer records: "Jesus said to his disciples, 'See, I am sending upon you what my Father promised; so stay here in the city until you have been clothed with power from on high.' Then he led them out as far as Bethany, and, lifting up his hands, he blessed them. While he was blessing them, he withdrew from them and was carried up into heaven. And they worshiped him, and returned to Jerusalem with great joy; and they were continually in the temple blessing God" (Luke 24:49-53).

The ascension of Christ may not seem as momentous as the resurrection or as rousing as the image of Jesus on the Cross, but no action of Christ is without weight, and this, his last action on earth, is weighed with great hope. The work God sent him to accomplish was finally completed. The ascension was a living and public declaration of his dying words on the Cross: It is finished. Ascending to heaven, Jesus furthered the victory of Easter. Thus, Ascension Day, a holy day falling inconspicuously on a Thursday in May, is the remembrance that Christ, who went to the depths of hell to reach us, is rightfully lifted on high.

But there are other reasons why the day merits our remembering and is worthy of import, and none is as simple as the fact that Jesus himself told us it was important. "It is for your good that I am going away. Unless I go away, the Counselor will not come to you; but if I go, I will send him to you" (John 16:7). In leaving this earth, Jesus sent a greater Comforter, the Holy Spirit, our Counselor sent in Christ's name, who guides us into all truth, and testifies of all that is to come. Rising to life and then to the heavens, Jesus sent forth the one who leads us further into the kingdom, until he himself comes to take us home.

And indeed, within his parting, we are assured of his return. As the disciples were watching and Jesus was taken up before their very eyes, a cloud hid him from their sight. The text then refers to them "looking intently up into the sky as he was going" when suddenly two men dressed in white stood beside them: "'Men of Galilee,' they said, 'why do you stand here looking into the sky? This same Jesus, who has been taken from you into heaven, will come back in the same way you have seen him go'" (Acts 1:9-11). In his resurrected body, Christ ascended to heaven, fully human, fully divine, and entirely glorified. Therefore, we carry in our own flesh a guarantee that Christ will bring us to himself. We are not left as orphans. Jesus ascended with a body and is coming back for those in bodies. He is preparing a room for us, which we know is real because he is real. Christ will come again.

Until this day, the ascension of Jesus Christ furthermore means that we have in heaven our advocate before the Father. Jesus is enthroned in glory and seated at the right hand of the Father as our righteousness. The work of Christ on the Cross is not only finished, it has been declared by the Father entirely effective, and the presence of Jesus in heaven is our guarantee. As John writes, "My dear children, I write this to you so that you will not sin. But if anybody does sin, we have one who speaks to the Father in our defense--Jesus Christ, the Righteous One" (1 John 2:1). Thus, the ascension of Christ is a fitting reminder of all that God has declared and all of creation will one day profess: "Therefore God exalted Him to the highest place and gave Him the Name that is above every name, that at the Name of Jesus every knee should bow in Heaven and on earth and under the earth, and every tongue confess that Jesus Christ is Lord, to the glory of God the Father" (Philippians 2:9-11).

He "borrowed" the quote in his response from Ravi Zacharias' internet ministry page (it was actually written by Jill Carattini). Aside from the Protestant tendency to forget that Catholics and Anglicans still celebrate the holy days of the liturgical calendar (like the Day of Ascension), the point the author is trying to make is that heaven is a real, physical place: "He [Jesus] is preparing a room for us, which we know is real because he is real."

So the question for the weekend is: what is heaven (or, conversely, hell)? Is heaven/hell a state of being, or a state of mind, or is it a place, physical if not literal? Thoughts?

The Rosary

I encourage everyone to check out Teddy's post, and these useful links: how to pray the rosary, the wikipedia page, and the page on prayer ropes.

So, question for the day: is using a rosary (or other ikons/icons) beneficial? Is it idolatrous? In light of our last Wednesday night discussion (involving prayer and sacrament), do the beads and rope represent something more than just beads and rope? Do they represent more than the prayers we offer while practicing the rosary? If so, what?

New question

Here's a new question from Mary Charles:

WHAT DOES PRAY WITHOUT CEASING MEAN TO YOU? HOW DOES IT HELP YOUR RELATIONSHIP WITH JESUS?

Thoughts?